奧斯卡終極預測
Final Prediction!!!!
預測是根據各前哨戰、公會頒獎結果、各Oscar Experts的意見、所有民意調查, 再加上自己觀看直播及研究奧斯17年的經驗合而成, 沒有放個人喜惡因素在內(除了最佳電影一項)。
有些獎項難以決定, 如最佳服裝, 最佳剪接, 今年的五位提名也是相當強。
可以肯定的是, 今年不會有一套電影可以橫掃奧斯卡, 而沒有提名最佳電影的"Dreamgirls"(估計:3)及"Pan's Labyrinth"(估計:3)看來最有機會贏最多的獎項。又或是像去年的"斷背山", "Crash", "King Kong", "藝伎回憶錄"四齣電影各奪三獎, 平分春色。
最佳電影:
這項大獎今年會是五套候選電影的任何一套, 但根據一些Hollywood Insider向大會投票人調查所得, 票數集中於"Babel"、"The Departed"及"Little Miss Sunshine", 而以"Babel"多一點。在沒有眾望所歸的情況下, 我以個人喜好作出發點, 所以大膽估計"Babel"會是最後勝出者。
大熱: Babel
次熱: The Departed/Little Miss Sunshine/The Queen/Letters from Iwo Jima
五齣電影的強與弱, 我之前做了分析, 可以按此閱讀。
最佳導演:
情意結也好, 論實力也好, Martin Scorsese應會得到入行三十餘年的首個Oscar。不過在倒數三天之時, 突然有投票人透露有大批年長的大會會員聯群投了奇連大導神聖一票, 而全美電話民意調查, 亦指奇連依士活會在今年再度勝出......
大熱: Martin Scorsese, "The Departed"
次熱: Clint Eastwood, "Letters from Iwo Jima"
最佳男主角:
有4套還未有機會看, 不過Forest Whitaker已贏盡了所有男主角, 大會對Petet O'Tootle的情意結應不足以推翻眾望所歸的意願。
大熱: Forest Whitaker, "The Last King of Scotland"
次熱: Peter O'Toole. "Venus"
最佳女主角:
五位候選的也要出色非常的好演員, 一般評論也說今年的五位女主角任何一位若在去年出現, 迎戰最終得獎的Resse Witherspoon也會輕易勝出。而五位中, Helen Mirren扮演英女皇維妙維肖之餘, 一家之主與一國之君處於兩難局面的內心掙扎, 她亦表現出相當高的演技水平, 眾望所歸的影后。
大熱: Helen Mirren, "The Queen"
次熱: Helen Mirren/Helen Mirren/Helen Mirren/Helen Mirren
最佳男配角:
其實這個項目很弱, 五位中看過的四位也沒有留下太深刻印象...誰勝誰負who cares...
大熱:Eddie Murphy, "Dreamgirls"
次熱:Alan Arkin, "Little Miss Sunshine"
最佳女配角:
就算好像我只覺"Dreamgirls"一般地好看的人, 也難以否認Jennifer Hudson閃亮整齣電影, 一位巨星誕生, 加上以主角身份角逐配角獎, 奪獎最"實至名歸"...
大熱:Jennifer Hudson, "Dreamgirls"
次熱:Abigail Breslin, "Little Miss Sunshine"
最佳改編劇本:
大熱:The Departed
次熱:Little Children
最佳原著劇本:
大熱:Little Miss Sunshine
次大熱:The Queen
外語電影:
雖然"Pan's Labyrinth"合共有六項提名, 而"The Lives of Others"只得一項, 但""The Lives of Others"其實並沒有在2006度於美國上映, 根本只合資格角逐外語片獎....所以這兩片其實也是實力均等。
大熱:"Pan's Labyrinth" Mexico
又是大熱:"The Lives of Others" Germany
動畫電影:
大熱:"Cars"
次熱:"Happy Feet"
美術指導:
大熱:"Pan's Labyrinth,"
次熱:"Dreamgirls,"
攝影:
大熱:"Children of Men,"
次熱: 沒有
音響:
大熱:"Dreamgirls,"
次熱:"Apocalypto,"
音響効果剪接:
大熱:"Letters From Iwo Jima,"
次熱:"Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest."
原作音樂:
大熱:"The Queen," Alexandre Desplat
次熱:"Babel," Gustavo Santaolalla
原作歌曲:
雖然歷史上前兩套能夠得到三首歌曲提名的"美女與野獸"(1991)及"獅子王"(1994)也能最終奪標, 但"Dreamgirls"裡面最動聽的兩首也是改編的, 不合資格提名, 提名的這三首原創歌曲明顯不夠前兩者的"Beauty and the Beast"及"Can You Feel the Love Tonight?"受歡迎及深入民心, 所以我覺得三首歌曲會完全自己打死自己...由喚醒人類全球暖化問題, 盡早反省生活習慣, 令大家年初一不用再穿短袖衫, 水仙劍蘭桃花不用開兩天年初二便謝, 日本的櫻花不會早了一個半月便全國盛放的發人心省環保歌"I Need to Wake Up"跑出。
大熱:"I Need to Wake Up" from "An Inconvenient Truth"
次熱:"Listen" from "Dreamgirls"
服裝設計:
中國、法國、英國、音樂界、時獎界的女皇及皇后們爭奇鬥艷...
較大熱:"滿城盡帶黃金甲"
次大熱:"Marie Antoinette"/"Dreamgirls"
次次熱:"The Queen"/"The Devil Wears Prada"
剪接:
"United 93"把天與地連成一體, "Babel"令三大洲四個家庭七種語言混化成一個難以忘懷的經典故事, "The Departed"讓錯綜複雜的黑白道翻天覆地。各有各出色的地方, 很難決擇。
較大熱:"Babel"
次大熱:"The Departed"/"United 93"
化粧:
大熱:"Pan's Labyrinth."
次熱:沒有
視覺效果:
大熱:"Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest,"
次熱:沒有
4 則留言:
Hi Donald,
I'm Karl from Germany. I'm sorry that I can't write you in Chinese but I can read Chinese and understand your blog. First of all I would like to say that I like your page pretty much and especially the film part. I admit that I came to know your blog when I was looking for some opinions from Hong Kong about "Babel". It's just happened that Google listed out our text on one of the first pages. Anyway, I am pretty happy that someone likes "Babel" as much as I do and I have to thank you a lot for your interpretation of Chieko's story. Even if you are so modest to say that you are not smart because you understand Iñárritus Intension only after the third time watching. Well, I can swear to you that most people, including me wouldn't catch the real meaning of this plot even after the 1000th time. I must say that I like the idea of a new start in Chieko's life. Compliment!
And because in Germany Babel's DVD is only published in July (here there's a regulation that says the DVD is only allowed to be published six months after the film's taken out from the theatre), I decided to buy one from the US through the internet (it's legal) and it arrived last week. Well, I don't think that there was one evening in the past few days that I did't watch at least one chapter of the film :-) In my opinion there are so much to say about this film. And I've blogged them in my homepage too. But I'm afraid that it wouldn't mean much to you because it's all written in German. Sorry.
And now back to the Oscar (I think I'm posting a comment in the Oscar blog, so... hehe). Well, now as you know that I like Babel so much, so I don't think it would surprise you that I really want Babel to become the best picture as well as you do. And after I watched "Letters from Iwo Jima" on thursday as to complete my Oscar-tour (it's the first time in my life that I'm able to watch ALL nominated films BEFORE the Oscar), I have to say that I personally still like Babel most. And to be honest, I actually like all 5 pictures, perhaps "The Departed" a bit less than the others. But except Babel there are always something that I dislike in the other 4 pictures: e.g. The middle part of "The Queen" feels an endless loop, "Little Miss Sunshine" wanted to cover too many social problems at one time and didn't end up all the sub-stories satisfactorily, "Letters from Iwo Jima" reduced a war to become an incident of three people, and last but not least "The Departed" takes definitely too long to introduce all the characters... Please don't misunderstand; there are a lot of good points in all these movies as well. But the point is that "Babel" was the film that I think is really perfect. However, as we all know the jury of the academy. Sometimes you just wonder about their decision...
So, what time will it be in Hong Kong when the Oscar is on air? Here in Germany it will be 2 o' clock in the morning and as every year on this particular Monday, I'll go to work with my half-closed eyes :-) I hope you don't have this "torture".
Enjoy the Oscar.
Regards,
Karl
Hi Karl,
我用中文表達會好一點, 請恕我用中文來回覆.
首先很多謝你對這個電影blog的讚賞, 我也是把自己對電影的點點興奮寫下來, 希望多些朋友可以交流. 你老遠從德國搜尋到這兒, 也是一個緣份, 很多謝你的喜歡.
關於對"巴別塔"的喜愛, 是每看一次又加深一重, 美版DVD在港已有售, 但它並沒有電影以外的bonus, 所以我想等等遲一些會否有另一個版本才購買.
每年一踏入Oscar Season這數個月, 我對電影的熱情又會歸來, 一來是年末年始來好電影, 另外亦是時候補看那些在電影院錯過了的(其餘月數會努力工作的時間多些).
很同意你對四套提名電影的看法(未看Letters from Iwo Jima), 我也覺今年Best Picture Nominees的質素平均的高(去年的Good Night and Good Luck, Capote及Munich, 我只覺一般的好看, 說不上喜歡). 對上一次5套中最少四套自己是喜愛得很, 已是1997年(Titanic, L.A.Confidentail, Good Will Hunting, As Good As It Gets也是水準極高....只有The Full Monty感覺一般).
香港的直播時間為上午9時正(Red Carpet 8時開始), 18年以來, 若要上學上班我也會請假在家中觀看(除了其中三年, 因當天有不能放下的工作).
若可以的話, 我也想到你的blog參觀一下, 雖然我不懂德語.
正如你一樣, 我很希望"Babel"會勝出. Good Luck.
Donald
Hi Donald,
It absolutely doesn't matter if you reply in chinese. I hope you don't mind that I write in english too. I think it's also a kind of "Babel" that people from different parts of the world get to know each other and talk about their common interests in the internet. It's very nice of you that you wonna have a look in my website. It's www.karlwu.de. So please enjoy although it's only written in German :-( But I hope that someday I'll get the time translate all the texts into english as an addition english version of the site.
The Babel DVD I have here is exactly the version you know in Hong kong. There're no extras at all. But I think I'll buy the colletor's edition as well when they publish it here in Germany. According to my information there will be such a version and it's on sell in the US already...
There's only several hours left until the Oscars. Well, here are my tips for the main categories (in Brackets are the one I like most in this category):
Best Picture: Babel (Babel)
Best Director: Martin Scorsese (Alejandro González Iñárritu)
Best Actor in the leading role: Forrest Whitaker (?? didn't watch those films yet)
Best Actress in the leading role: Helen Mirren (Helen Mirren)
Best Actor in the supporting role: Eddie Murphy (Alan Arkin)
Best Original Screenplay: Little Muss Sunshine (Babel)
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Departed (?? only watched The Departed and I like the original more)
Best Archivement in Cinematography: Pan Labyrinth (Prestige)
Best Archivement in Editing:
Babel (United 93)
So enjoy the Oscars
Regards
Karl
Hi Karl,
I went to your website, then translate them to English, wow... you are so amazing about know anything from soccer to movies, I love your database very much.
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